Steen Jakobsen said, "our main global macro outlook still maintains that recession is more likely to happen in the near future (within 12 to 18 months) based on the global credit impulse having peaked simultaneously with global inflation."

雅各布森表示：“基于全球信貸和通脹同時(shí)觸頂，我們對(duì)全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的主要觀點(diǎn)仍是，在未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月里全球經(jīng)濟(jì)很可能會(huì)陷入衰退。”

In a recent note, Jakobsen explained that the biggest"perception-versus-reality gap" in the market currently remains this risk of recession. He added that his company is not predicting a recession, but that its economic model does indicate a significant slowdown as "the large credit impulse from China and Europe in the early part of 2016 has not reversed to negative", which it says should make the market conservative, risk averse push investors into U.S. fixed income.

雅各布森在最近公布的一份研究報(bào)告中解釋稱：“目前市場(chǎng)大大低估了衰退發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們并不是在預(yù)測(cè)衰退的到來(lái)，而是經(jīng)濟(jì)模型顯示由于中國(guó)和歐洲地區(qū)的信貸沖動(dòng)仍沒(méi)有得到扭轉(zhuǎn)，因此未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將急劇下跌。” 這將會(huì)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)趨向保守，避險(xiǎn)情緒將會(huì)推動(dòng)投資者涌入美國(guó)固定收益類領(lǐng)域。

 "While the market at large sees less than a 10 percent chance of recession, we at Saxo –together with our friends at South Africa's Nedbank – see more than a 60 percent chance," he added in the note.

在報(bào)告中，他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，“雖然市場(chǎng)基本上都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性不足10%，但我們以及南非萊利銀行都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性超過(guò)了60%。

But, according to Jakobsen, Europe's momentum is not followed in other parts of the globe.

但是，雅各布森指出，雖然歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)有所加強(qiáng)，但全球其他地區(qū)的表現(xiàn)就要相對(duì)遜色很多。

"One thing is absolutely clear: Asia is not going to contribute anything in 2017 to growth. China is currently at a total standstill," Jakobsen said Monday.

雅各布森指出：有一點(diǎn)是非常明確的：亞洲在2017年將不會(huì)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)做出任何貢獻(xiàn)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)處于停滯狀態(tài)。