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首頁(yè)> 公告> 雙語(yǔ)|投行預(yù)警!未來(lái)18個(gè)月全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能性超60% ?!

雙語(yǔ)|投行預(yù)警!未來(lái)18個(gè)月全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能性超60% ?!

2017-07-17 11:51

導(dǎo)讀:丹麥?zhǔn)氥y行(Saxo Bank)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂恩?雅各布森(Steen Jakobsen)在近期接受CNBC采訪時(shí)稱,預(yù)計(jì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度將在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月時(shí)間里大幅放緩,原因是中國(guó)和歐洲市場(chǎng)上的借款都已經(jīng)達(dá)到了很高水平,而美國(guó)市場(chǎng)上所謂的"特朗普行情"則將逐步消失。

Steen Jakobsen said, "our main global macro outlook still maintains that recession is more likely to happen in the near future (within 12 to 18 months) based on the global credit impulse having peaked simultaneously with global inflation."

 

雅各布森表示:“基于全球信貸和通脹同時(shí)觸頂,我們對(duì)全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的主要觀點(diǎn)仍是,在未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月里全球經(jīng)濟(jì)很可能會(huì)陷入衰退。”

 

In a recent note, Jakobsen explained that the biggest"perception-versus-reality gap" in the market currently remains this risk of recession. He added that his company is not predicting a recession, but that its economic model does indicate a significant slowdown as "the large credit impulse from China and Europe in the early part of 2016 has not reversed to negative", which it says should make the market conservative, risk averse push investors into U.S. fixed income.

 

雅各布森在最近公布的一份研究報(bào)告中解釋稱:“目前市場(chǎng)大大低估了衰退發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們并不是在預(yù)測(cè)衰退的到來(lái),而是經(jīng)濟(jì)模型顯示由于中國(guó)和歐洲地區(qū)的信貸沖動(dòng)仍沒(méi)有得到扭轉(zhuǎn),因此未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將急劇下跌。” 這將會(huì)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)趨向保守,避險(xiǎn)情緒將會(huì)推動(dòng)投資者涌入美國(guó)固定收益類領(lǐng)域。

 

 "While the market at large sees less than a 10 percent chance of recession, we at Saxo –together with our friends at South Africa's Nedbank – see more than a 60 percent chance," he added in the note.

 

在報(bào)告中,他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),“雖然市場(chǎng)基本上都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性不足10%,但我們以及南非萊利銀行都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性超過(guò)了60%。

 

 

看好歐洲股市前景

雅各布森(Jakobsen)表示,歐洲被視為推動(dòng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引擎之一,其預(yù)計(jì)歐洲今年二季度和三季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將會(huì)超越美國(guó)。很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也持同樣的觀點(diǎn),隨著民調(diào)顯示馬克龍將會(huì)在法國(guó)大選中擊敗右翼候選人勒龐,市場(chǎng)對(duì)民粹主義的擔(dān)憂有所消退,許多投資機(jī)構(gòu)也上調(diào)了對(duì)歐洲股票的前景預(yù)期。

 

摩根資產(chǎn)管理公司全球市場(chǎng)策略師麥克?貝爾(Mike Bell)在周一表示,與美股相比,歐洲股市“看起來(lái)相當(dāng)便宜”。他說(shuō):“雖然金融危機(jī)之后歐洲企業(yè)盈利低迷,但這一情況已經(jīng)得到了顯著改善。歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面也處于穩(wěn)定復(fù)蘇之中?!?/p>

 

 

2017亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增速或放緩

But, according to Jakobsen, Europe's momentum is not followed in other parts of the globe.

 

但是,雅各布森指出,雖然歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)有所加強(qiáng),但全球其他地區(qū)的表現(xiàn)就要相對(duì)遜色很多。

 

"One thing is absolutely clear: Asia is not going to contribute anything in 2017 to growth. China is currently at a total standstill," Jakobsen said Monday.

 

雅各布森指出:有一點(diǎn)是非常明確的:亞洲在2017年將不會(huì)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)做出任何貢獻(xiàn),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)處于停滯狀態(tài)。

“他們不知道該如何應(yīng)對(duì)特朗普,而且現(xiàn)在看來(lái)特朗普很可能會(huì)兌現(xiàn)和保護(hù)主義相關(guān)的競(jìng)選承諾,比如推出邊境調(diào)節(jié)稅等,”他補(bǔ)充道。

 

雅各布森說(shuō),美國(guó)股市的最大推動(dòng)力似乎是希望。自特朗普就任以來(lái),標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)已多次觸及歷史新高,因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)期待這位新上任的總統(tǒng)能履行自己在競(jìng)選期間作出的出臺(tái)大規(guī)模減稅政策和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的承諾。

 

“很多股票分析師都認(rèn)為,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將大幅上漲,但這種預(yù)期立基于希望之上。對(duì)我而言,希望是只屬于周日去教堂時(shí)才有的東西,”雅各布森說(shuō)道。

 

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