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2017-07-17 12:44
導(dǎo)讀：瑞信董事總經(jīng)理、全球金融策略首席Michael J. Mauboussin 在激蕩華爾街三十年之際，撰寫了一篇特別版報(bào)告，將其過去三十年來總結(jié)的偉大投資者的共同特征與投資者共享。其中， 這四大特征對于任何類型的投資均有普遍意義。
1. Understand value
(the present value of free cash flow)
理解價(jià)值（自由現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值）
上市公司的半衰期大約是10年，這意味著，可投資的公司處在不斷的變化中。然而有一點(diǎn)幾乎不變的是：未來現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)后的現(xiàn)值決定了資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值，不管是股票、債券還是房產(chǎn)都是如此。
Great fundamental investors focus on understanding the magnitude and sustainability of free cash
flow. Factors that an investor must consider include where the industry is in its life cycle, a
company’s competitive position within its industry, barriers to entry, and management’s skill at allocating capital. A corollary to this attribute is that great investors understand the limitations of valuation approaches such as price/earnings and enterprise value/EBITDA multiples. Indeed, multiples are not valuation but a shorthand for the valuation process.
偉大的基本面投資者關(guān)注并理解自由現(xiàn)金流的規(guī)模和持續(xù)性。具體而言，需要綜合考慮公司所處的行業(yè)生命周期，公司在整個(gè)行業(yè)競爭中所處的位置，行業(yè)的進(jìn)入門檻和公司管理層配置公司資源的能力等。所以偉大投資者都非常清楚如市盈率和企業(yè)價(jià)值倍數(shù)等估值方法的局限性。實(shí)際上，這些指標(biāo)并不直接代表公司價(jià)值，而只是評估價(jià)值過程中需要用到的便捷工具而已。
2 . Properly assess strategy
(or how a business makes money).
正確評估公司戰(zhàn)略（即公司如何賺錢）
This attribute has two dimensions. The first is a
fundamental understanding of how a company
makes money. The idea is to distill the business to
the basic unit of analysis. Great investors can explain clearly how a company makes money, and
never own the stock of a company if they do not
understand how it makes money.
這一能力有微觀和宏觀兩個(gè)方面。微觀方面， 偉大的投資者對公司如何賺錢有深層的理解，他們會細(xì)看整個(gè)公司的經(jīng)營。偉大的投資者對自己投資的公司如何賺錢十分明了，對影響利潤變化的因素十分了解；他們從來不投資自己不了解的公司。
The second dimension is gaining a grasp of a
company’s sustainable competitive advantage. A
company has a competitive advantage when it earns a return on investment above the opportunity
cost of capital and earns a higher return than its
competitors. Great investors can appreciate what
differentiates a company that allows it to build an
economic moat around its franchise that protects
the business from competitors. The size and
longevity of the moat are significant inputs into
any thoughtful valuation.
宏觀方面，是對公司競爭優(yōu)勢可持續(xù)性的理解。一個(gè)公司的競爭優(yōu)勢在財(cái)務(wù)上的體現(xiàn)是，投資回報(bào)率高于其投入資金的機(jī)會成本并且高于同行競爭者的回報(bào)率。偉大的投資者能夠鑒別公司憑借什么優(yōu)勢建立起經(jīng)濟(jì)壁壘，防御其他競爭者的入侵。而這個(gè)防御壁壘的規(guī)模和可持續(xù)性則是公司估值的重要因素。
3. Think probabilistically
用概率來思考
投資是一門概率藝術(shù)。偉大投資者整個(gè)的思維框架是建立在概率上的，并在市場上尋找價(jià)格與概率錯配所產(chǎn)生的投資機(jī)會。
When probability plays a large role in outcomes, it
makes sense to focus on the process of making
decisions rather than the outcome alone. The reason is that a particular outcome may not be indicative of the quality of the decision. Good decisions
sometimes result in bad outcomes and bad
decisions lead to good outcomes. Over the long
haul, however, good decisions portend favorable
outcomes even if you will be wrong from time to
time. Learning to focus on process and accept the
periodic and inevitable bad outcomes is crucial.
當(dāng)概率對投資結(jié)果有較大影響，偉大投資者的關(guān)注點(diǎn)更側(cè)重于決策過程而非結(jié)果。因?yàn)楹玫慕Y(jié)果不代表決策過程優(yōu)異。長期來看，即使你時(shí)不時(shí)犯錯，好的決策可以預(yù)示好的結(jié)果。
因此，對于投資者來說，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注投資決策過程，并接受偶爾不好的投資結(jié)果至關(guān)重要。
Great investors recognize another uncomfortable
reality about probability: the frequency of
correctness does not really matter, what matters is
how much money you make when you are right
versus how much money you lose when you are
wrong (slugging percentage). This concept is very
difficult to put into operation because of loss
aversion. But if the goal is grow the value of a
portfolio, slugging percentage is what matters.
偉大投資者的對概率的另一個(gè)清醒認(rèn)識是，他們清楚正確和錯誤的次數(shù)并不重要，重要的是每次正確決策時(shí)能帶來多少收益以及每次錯誤決策時(shí)帶來多少損失。由于人們對損失有本能的厭惡，所以這一理念在一般人的投資決策中很難實(shí)行。但偉大的投資者摒棄了對損失的厭惡本能，不關(guān)注對錯，只關(guān)注手中投資組合終值。
4. Update your views effectively
(Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected)
更新自己的觀點(diǎn)（觀點(diǎn)是有待驗(yàn)證的假設(shè)，而非一成不的原則）
多數(shù)人喜歡一直保持自己的觀點(diǎn)，即便事實(shí)已經(jīng)開始證明這一觀點(diǎn)是錯誤的。并且我們也通常期待他他人保持觀點(diǎn)一致。正是這種保護(hù)觀點(diǎn)的行為阻止了對事件的不斷思考，并避免根據(jù)新的推論做出行為上的改變。
The best investors among us recognize that the
world changes constantly and that all of the views
that we hold are tenuous. They actively seek
varied points of view and update their beliefs as
new information dictates. The consequence of
updated views can be action: changing a portfolio
stance or weightings within a portfolio.
偉大投資者清醒地認(rèn)識到世界處于不斷變化之中，我們目前持有的所有觀點(diǎn)是脆弱的不堪一擊。他們主動尋找與自己觀點(diǎn)向左的信息、觀點(diǎn)和事實(shí)，并在有確鑿證據(jù)證明自己觀點(diǎn)錯誤時(shí)，果斷更新自己的觀點(diǎn)。看似容易的行為，實(shí)際上常人難以做到。更新觀點(diǎn)的結(jié)果是行動：更改頭寸方向或增減其在組合中的比重。
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